Nitrogen and phosphorus want to fly! Where does potassium go?

The prices of urea and ammonium sulfate have risen a lot, and ammonium chloride, which is extremely cost-effective and has been concerned by some big traders, has finally risen; monoammonium phosphate is also eager to hype and rebound through a wave of purchases, saying that it is The demand is increasing and the operating rate is low; even potassium sulfate, which has been dubbed the “worst fertilizer” by the author for a long time, has rebounded… Then will it be the next turn to put potassium sulfate as the “worst fertilizer”? What about the potassium chloride that you wear on your head?

In the same period last year, the price of 62% white potassium at the port was around 5,200 yuan/ton, which was at a historical high. At that time, the minimum import cost was about 4,400 yuan/ton; the current price of 62% white potassium at the port is around 2,350-2,400 yuan/ton, while The current minimum import cost is about 2,400 yuan/ton. It fell by more than 50% year-on-year; it fell below the minimum cost as soon as the big contract was signed; there are still more than 2 million tons of high-priced imports in the port in the early stage; Only 40 yuan / ton, nitrogen and phosphorus are still speculating, and potassium fertilizer is very confused… Is this “the worst”?

The procurement of raw materials in autumn is being carried out one after another. Under the situation that nitrogen and phosphorus are relatively strong, potassium chloride, which has fallen below the cost, may gain certain favor and properly improve the “status” in the ratio of nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium. It may fall again, so it is no wonder that more people have come to inquire about whether they can grab goods or even buy bottoms recently. Now the unified answer is as follows:

First of all, it must be clear that if there are no major surprises, the long-term trend of potassium chloride will remain bearish. This is simply because of the serious expectation of oversupply. This is a cliché. It is basically confirmed that there will be no shortage throughout the year in the middle of the year. What is the signing of potassium first and then followed by potassium and German potassium? What are the “brothers” of the two Russias and the Laos base… …

Secondly, although demand has improved, it is not expected to improve much. The apparent consumption of potassium chloride this year will definitely not be low. The import figures and expectations are obvious there, but this increase in apparent consumption does not necessarily mean that the market has improved. At least the imported potassium has lost money and cannot be sold. Woolen cloth. In addition, for urea, monoammonium, etc., can the market really remain relatively strong? In fact, the general direction of the overall fertilizer price is still downward, and this has not changed. The only difference is whether there is any fluctuation in the middle and to what extent.

So the conclusion is: the long-term trend of potassium chloride is still not optimistic, and it is not recommended to stock up at the bottom for the time being; the short-term trend may stabilize or even fluctuate due to some market or human factors, but the possibility is not great , and at most it is only activities around the range of about two hundred yuan between the apparent cost and the minimum cost of the new large contract. Those who have immediate demand should consider it according to their own and local supply conditions.