The export volume and price of SOA have all risen.
- Price trend
In April, the SOA market first suppressed and then rose. On April 1, the average ex-factory price of domestic SOA was 873 yuan/ton, and on April 27 it was 870 yuan/ton. The price of SOA fell by 0.38% this month. SOA rose for the second consecutive week, and this week the increase was slightly larger. The ex-factory prices of most coking by-product SOA manufacturers in the north increased by 15-70 yuan/ton compared with the previous week, and the increase of capro grade SOA was not large temporarily, Southern coking by-product SOA manufacturers mainly fell in last week, and the new price this week should be stable.
- Market analysis
The price of SOA start fell and then rose this month. In the first half of April, the market price of SOA fluctuated and fell. The market continued to decline with few inquiries and poor transactions. The international market for SOA was sluggish, with mostly low-price transactions. The bidding price of coking-grade SOA was lowered, and the price of caprolactone-grade SOA followed suit. In the second half of April, the price of SOA fluctuated and rose. The domestic SOA market price rebounded, and the market transaction was good. The downstream compound fertilizer market has improved, and the procurement demand has increased. As of April 27, the mainstream price of coking-grade SOA in Shandong is about 855 yuan/ton. Hexyl SOA, the mainstream ex-factory price in Shandong area is about 850-900 yuan/ton. This month, the downstream compound fertilizer market fluctuated and consolidated. In the first ten days of April, the price trend of compound fertilizers moved downwards, and the operating rate of enterprises decreased. The raw material market is not good, and the cost support of compound fertilizer is weakened. The market turnover is relatively small, and the demand is weak. In late April, compound fertilizer enterprises gradually resumed operations, the market improved and demand increased.
- Reasons for the rise
First, the number of exports is as large as ever. In March, China exported 1.0152 million tons of SOA, an increase of 33.8% year-on-year and a month-on-month increase of 14.4%. Breaking through one million tons has once again refreshed history.
Second, the export price of SOA in China has finally risen slightly. As of April 21, the CIF price of SOA in Brazil has risen by US$10/ton. The price of SOA by-product of caprolactam in China has dropped, and the price of granular SOA has stabilized. The price has increased by about US$4/ton or more from the previous week, and the FOB price of granular SOA has increased by about US$3/ton. From mid-February to mid-April, China’s SOA has been falling intermittently.
Considering that the price of SOA in China also fell all the way from mid-February to mid-April, both export traders and domestic compound fertilizer manufacturers and distributors are very cautious about the purchase of SOA, and the stock of SOA in their hands is naturally low. In this way, the moderate rise in SOA in the two weeks starting from April 17 and April 24 can be regarded as a matter of course.
Third, the receipt of rare earth goods has increased slightly. This rise is similar to the one before and after the Spring Festival holiday. Middlemen who were engaged in the rare earth market and exported rare earths to Vietnam/Myanmar/Laos were active for about two or three weeks around the Spring Festival. At that time, the price soared. Manufacturers don’t care much about the price, as long as the goods can be cashed in time when there is demand; this round of increase is reflected in the relatively large increase of some coking by-product SOA manufacturers in Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, and Ningxia. It can be a small guess that the holiday is coming. It may be that the regulation of rare earths is loose, and there is a certain demand for SOA in the short term.
Fourth, domestic demand is gradually increasing, but the proportion of domestic demand is too small to play a decisive role. Domestic urea has fallen sharply, but the price is still high. Hebei urea ex-factory quotation is 2330-2340 yuan/ton, and Hebei coking by-product SOA ex-factory factory is 815-845 yuan/ton. The nitrogen content is 46% and 20.5% respectively. Sulfuric acid is used Ammonium is more cost-effective. For the time being, compound fertilizer companies are more willing to use SOA. However, the domestic demand for SOA is very small compared to exports. The domestic urea will not drop, and the increase in the use of SOA will not be particularly large, which will not affect the price of SOA. .
- market outlook forecast
Recently, the domestic market of SOA has been improving, and the bidding price has risen. On-site inquiries increased, trading increased, and the mentality of the industry gradually recovered. It is expected that the price of SOA will rise steadily in the short term.
On the one hand, the export volume of SOA is indeed large, but only when the export list is slightly concentrated, that is, when major destination countries such as Brazil and Myanmar are eager to import, can the price of SOA in my country rise. In the context of the bearish international urea, although the recent cumulative rise of 20-40 US dollars / ton and a little more, the current FOB price of urea in Egypt, Algeria and other places is mostly around 360 US dollars / ton, and the urea in the Black Sea and other places is temporarily at 275 US dollars Around / ton, it seems that the international urea is about to peak, and how long the price of SOA in Brazil and China will stabilize and rise in the past two weeks still needs to be closely watched.
On the other hand, supply will mainly increase. For the time being, a small number of SOA manufacturers are under maintenance or will be overhauled soon, but there are still a few SOA manufacturers that will resume production, such as a factory in Shanxi and a factory in Hebei. This year, the production capacity of lithium iron phosphate by-product SOA in the South will increase significantly, which will slightly suppress the price of SOA.
To sum up, the price of SOA has to rise and rise, and it may persist for another week or two, and the next round of decline may not be far away. It is necessary to pay close attention to the price trend of international urea and international SOA.
