When will ammonium sulfate stop rising?
The price of urea has risen for the third time recently. The ex-factory quotations in Shandong and other places after the Dragon Boat Festival have increased by 60-120 yuan/ton, and some individual manufacturers have increased by more than 200 yuan/ton. Ammonium sulfate is not to be outdone. The price of ammonium sulfate in many places has risen for two or three weeks. Taking Hebei as an example, the ex-factory price of coking by-product ammonium sulfate has risen from 585-615 yuan/ton in mid-June to June 28. 650-700 yuan/ton. It can be said that urea has risen, and ammonium sulfate has followed suit. However, after all, ammonium sulfate exports account for more than 70% of the total output, and the correlation between the two is not so great. When will it turn into a decline?
First of all, the reason for the rise of urea is nothing more than the fact that the export price is not particularly low. The latest FOB guide price of China’s small granular urea even rose by US$10/ton to about US$295/ton from the previous week, although the ex-factory price for export is still low. The ex-factory price of domestic trade, but our export volume is not so large, and it has not yet reached the period of too much pressure on domestic trade prices; another reason for the rise of urea is that most buyers still hold bearish expectations in the early stage and even in the near future, leading to social The inventory is relatively small, especially when the demand for agricultural top dressing and industrial power plants, plywood factories and other industrial needs are released temporarily, the urea rises a bit crazy; the most important thing is that the output is temporarily low, and the transportation of most factories is also tight. In addition, the futures market is disrupted In the hearts of the people, urea is already the third round of rising. The first two rounds are rising rapidly and cooling down quickly. This round of rising may not last for too long. Next, we need to pay attention to the progress of topdressing, the international urea market trends, and the possible July Mid-print mark.
Secondly, to briefly talk about the relationship between domestic urea and ammonium sulfate, the nitrogen content of urea and ammonium sulfate is 46% and 20.5% respectively, both of which can be used for topdressing and the production of compound fertilizers, and the sulfur in ammonium sulfate is one There are some advantages, but if the compound fertilizer companies receive goods, the price of ammonium sulfate is half of the price of urea, which is even lower. Ammonium sulfate still has some room to rise.
However, the export of ammonium sulfate accounts for 70% or even 80% of its total output. Looking at domestic trade alone, it is difficult for ammonium sulfate to follow the surge of urea. That is to say, it is hovering at a low level of around 600 yuan/ton or slightly higher. The moderate rise in the past two or three weeks and even the big rise this week still depend on the receipt of exports and rare earths, and may even be the intervention of some capital flows. .
Again, looking at the ammonium sulphate export is not too good. As of June 23, the FOB guide price of caprolactam by-product ammonium sulfate in China has been as low as US$103/ton, and the price of pellets is higher. In view of this, the ex-factory price of caprolactam by-product ammonium sulfate has only moderately increased recently. This week, coking ammonium sulfate has risen a lot. It may be that there is a good demand for rare earth mining in the southern rare earth market and Yunnan to export to Southeast Asian markets such as Myanmar and Laos. It may also be the receipt of goods by two or three large export traders. It is more active (mostly extruded and granulated before exporting), or after the price is as low as 600 yuan/ton, it seems reasonable to increase the price of ammonium sulfate due to occasional exports or centralized receipt of rare earths. If ammonium wants to continue to rise, it needs a steady rise in the receipt of these two aspects, especially a steady rise in export prices.
Finally, if my country’s ammonium sulfate export price wants to rise, it depends on when the international ammonium sulfate price will turn to rise (maybe this week, it may first stabilize and then fall moderately before rising), and it is necessary to observe how far the international urea price can rise. To a certain extent, we have to wait until Brazil and Europe receive a little more intensive delivery (such as August-September last year).
In short, the price of ammonium sulfate rose sharply after being low in the short term. Occasionally, exports and rare earths are slightly better, and large capital flows also intervene. The long-term bias is bearish. It may fall first and then rise in the second half of the year. Weakness is mainly mixed with occasional rises, and we need to continue to pay attention to the international environment (shocks and falls), the impact of lithium iron phosphate by-product ammonium sulfate on prices, and so on.
